Glenn Reynolds tosses out some reader feedback on the latest newspaper misery: ad revenues are in "dive, dive, dive!" mode:

Reader Johann Erickson emails: "Last time I put a 'help wanted' ad in my local paper, it cost me about $500. I got 6 faxes, 5 were unqualified for the job. I put an ad on Craigslist for free and got about 40 resumes. About 10 qualified for the job. Why would I ever use a newspaper again? Classified ads were the biggest drop, 16.5% or so. Just another dinosaur dying." As I said, ouch.

That sound you hear is a lot of media guys crying in their coffee...

Technorati Tags: news, media

I've thought for a long while that the bom in online ads was bound to evaporate in a sudden "where's the beef" realization (without regard to Jason Calacanis' insane theories that volume somehow trumps revenue). Well - it looks like the sudden realization is setting in now:

The focus on Google's recent deterioration sharpened Tuesday as investors reacted to the latest evidence indicating fewer people in the United States are clicking on the Internet ads that generate most of the online search leader's profits.

The unsettling trend, captured in a closely followed report from Internet research firm comScore Inc., shoved Google shares to an 11-month low. The drop extended a slump that has lowered the Mountain View-based company's market value by 33 percent, or about $70 billion, during the first seven weeks of the year. The tech-laden Nasdaq composite index has declined by 12 percent during the same stretch.

To which I say: "well, duh". Most of us ignore ads, and the more strident amongst us have ad blockers. Why would anyone think that there was an unlimited market for ads most people would rather ignore?

Technorati Tags: google, management

Dare's example of the sort of ads he's seeing on Facebook prove one thing: Nick Carr is underestimating Facebook.

Technorati Tags: social media

Nick Carr is skeptical about Facebook's chances:

If Google and MySpace are struggling to monetize social network traffic, one can only imagine the challenges facing Facebook, a much smaller company with less traffic, fewer resources, and, in general, a clientele more resistant to commercialization than MySpace's. In this light, Beacon seems less like a folly than like a deliberate act of risk-taking, if not of desperation. The rich valuation that Facebook has to live up to demands a lucrative advertising or sponsorship model, and Facebook may well have come to the conclusion that such a model inevitably requires a far more intrusive approach to using members' information and even identities for commercial ends.

I'd say two things: First, the "uproar" over Beacon was a tempest in a teapot. Steve Gillmor nailed this on one of his Gang podcasts at the time - lots of complaining by people who either aren't on Facebook, or are only on the periphery - and continued growth of membership. Meaning, no one on the system really cared. I recall saying at the time something like "Duh, that's how Facebook works".

Contrary to Carr's theory, I expect Facebook will be a lot better at "social advertsing" than Google is. In that space, Facebook is to Google as Google is to Newspapers.

Technorati Tags: social media

This catalogue of the woes of the NY Times - one of the premier "old media" properties - makes me think that the days of print newspapers are coming to a close faster than I thought they would. It's easier to read news through a browser or aggregator, but even on the go, devices like iPhones, iPod Touch, and various other smart phones, make it easy to read what you want on a device you carry everywhere.

As the linked article points out, the advertising declines are what will be the death of most newspapers - if fewer people buy, fewer companies advertise, and the whole thing becomes a vicious cycle of decline. I don't really see a way out for the print side of things. There's plenty of future online, but the transition from where they are now to where they need to be is going to be painful - and inertia filled.

Update: A nice summation of the problem here.

Technorati Tags: news, media, newspaper

Hmm - I see Michael Arrington is reporting that Scoble has decided to go with ads on his site (a turn around for him; he's previously eschewed ads, and claimed that having them is somehow a conflict of interest). I fully expect there to be a storm of "how can he be objective" type posts to fly out.

Before anyone takes that tack, I'd like them to open a newspaper, or turn on network/cable news. Notice those breaks they take on a regular basis (or in the paper case, in the boxes filled with commercial content)? Where exactly are the "pure as the driven snow" journalists that people seem to expect? Bandwidth may be cheaper than printing presses, but it's not free.

Update: Scoble explains - one line from his post is pretty much all you need to know, and it's sensible: "Because it will let me hire people to produce more content. "

Technorati Tags: journalists, media, ethics

Mathew Ingram asks a reasonable question: just how much value (in market terms) do most Facebook apps have?

In a recent post, I looked at the numbers put out by Adonomics — a Facebook app consulting company — which argues that apps like FunWall are worth $30-million based on an ad model that the company has come up with. As I noted in that post, however, much of what goes into those numbers is just guesswork, and maybe a little wishful thinking as well. Can something like FunWall produce enough actual value that we can say (in any real sense) it is “worth” $30-million?

I smell bubble, just about ready to pop.

Technorati Tags: social media, facebook