Reality as Opposed to Hysteria
I was listening to TwIT yesterday while exercising, and they went off on a long rant about how dangerous it is for people to drive while talking on phones - handsfree or not. There was a lot of talk about the "suppressed" NHTSA report, which claims that driving while talking is extremely dangerous:
In the suppressed report, researchers estimated that cell-phone-related distraction had caused 955 fatalities and 240,000 accidents in 2002 alone. In a letter to then Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta—another item that was withheld and never sent—the researchers warned that hands-free laws might not be enough.
One thing I know is that mobile phone usage has been going up steadily over the last few years, and cars have been getting only marginally safer (many of the big wins in car safety happened a long while back). So I went looking for traffic fatality records, and ran across this:
The U.S. Department of Transportation today announced that the number of overall traffic fatalities reported in 2008 hit their lowest level since 1961 and that fatalities in the first three months of 2009 continue to decrease. The fatality rate, which accounts for variables like fewer miles traveled, also reached the lowest level ever recorded.
I see a small problem here. The roads are getting progressively less deadly even as cell phone use increases. It's not that phones aren't distracting; they are. But plenty of other things are distracting as well, and the raw reality is that the death toll on the roads is trending down, not up.
Make me go Hmmmm
Technorati Tags: distraction, mobiles, traffic
Comments
logically both can be true
[Patrick Logan] July 31, 2009 11:52:10.000
Not sure of your point. Even though fatalities overall are down, the number reported due to phones is accurate. Not to say there aren't other distractions, but the numbers could still make sense.
sorry - correction
[Patrick Logan] July 31, 2009 11:53:43.000
Wrote "is accurate" meant "could be accurate".
Re: Reality as Opposed to Hysteria
[ anonymous] July 31, 2009 12:18:08.000
Comment by anonymous
My point is, I don't see why the cell phone has to be a villain. Shall we also ban drive through windows? Eating a burger while driving can lead to distractions as well. What about beverages? Makeup? Reading?
Any conversation could be dangerous
[] July 31, 2009 12:28:41.000
How is talking on a hands free phone more distracting than talking to a passenger? You'd tend not to look at the so wouldn't that be less distracting than somebody actually in the car?
Road deaths are down because of...
[nobody@127.0.0.1] July 31, 2009 15:01:19.000
seat belts, air bags, crumple zones and other improvements to car design, previously fatal accidents are now survivable. Fatalities may be down but its also possible for the number of accidents to up.
A quick google will find several studies into the dangers of using a phone while driving - some even compare it to being over the alcohol limit.
As I said...
[ anonymous] July 31, 2009 16:01:17.639
Comment by anonymous
Most of the big wins in car safety are old. Something else is going on, too.
unsure
[Patrick Logan] July 31, 2009 23:30:28.403
What should we ban while driving? I dunno. I am sure cell phones are a current target based on more than stats. That is no reason _not_ to ban them though, if the stats suggest a ban might have a beneficial result. Sometimes legislation has to sieze a moment of popular support. I hope legislatures decide wisely, although I am sympathetic to the notion that that is not often the case.
[John M McIntosh] August 1, 2009 1:47:51.988
Nothing there on active stability control systems, which proved statistical significant in reducing single car accidents in Europe (30-70%). http://www.chooseesc.eu/download/ESC%20Background%20Paper.pdf