Steve Rubel points to a Microsoft Research report - which has some pretty horrifying numbers on BlogSpot and a number of other sites:
Blogspot - the free platform tied to Blogger - is among the top doorway domains for spam. Some 74% of Blogspot blogs are used as splogs.
It's not just BlogSpot - there are worse ones out there. Check out the whole report.
Spotted in planet squeak: SqueakFest 2007 is being held at Columbia College, Chicago.
Technorati Tags: Squeak
No sooner did I ask "what's the business model?" for Twitter, than a commenter said this:
Let’s assume that there are 20,000 people on Twitter who have added Starbucks as a Friend in order to get a few promotions a week - e.g. a free cookie with your coffee, a free tall coffee, etc. If Twitter charged Starbucks a few cents per tweet per follower, the revenue from Starbucks might looks something like this:
20,000 followers
10 tweets (promotions) per week
$.05 cents per tweet for each follower (maybe more???)
that’s $10 K per week or about $40K per month
I have no idea whether they are thinking along those lines, but they should be.
Update: This needs to come up from the comments to this post:
For example, what if Starbucks put up signs in their shops: "give us your mobile number if you want to receive text alerts of our newest specials"? Suddenly, they can reach most of the same people without the middleman's markup. I think the people behind Twitter have not really thought about just how far disintermediation has gone already, or how far it is likely to go in the future.
So it's back to my first thought - the Twitter business model is "get bought".
Technorati Tags: Twitter
On today's Smalltalk Daily, we take a look at fetching email using the IMAP client.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Steve Rubel spots one of the problems with the "lets run a site without a business plan" theory that Twitter seems to be following:
In the good ol' United States of America, the receiver pays the SMS bill. In Canada, Australia, Europe and I believe much of Asia, the sender pays. For Twitter , this may add up fast.
This brings to mind something I heard on last week's TWIT - Jason Calacanis called in, and mentioned an enormous bill for text messages (it was over $200 in the space of a week, I think). Now translate that to the bills arriving at Twitter headquarters for all the SMS notifications they get from people (and possibly the ones they send, if they support international SMS). Either way, that's a lot of money bleeding out.
The only business model I can spot for Twitter is "get bought by Google/Yahoo/Microsoft".
Wired notes that CD sales have dropped 20% compared to the same quarter last year (and the ongoing trend is a steadily downward one):
judging from sales statistics for the first three months of 2007, the downward trend is now accelerating with fearsome speed, with sales of compact discs in the first quarter of 2007 dropping 20% compared to the same quarter last year.
The music industry reaction to this is that digital sales are both salvation and damnation. They would like to translate the business model that's been in use for CD's and LP's onto the new world, but what's actually happening is a return to the 50's and 60's - the single is back.
This bothers both executives and artists. Artists have become used to the idea of producing an entire album as an artistic "statement", and executives have gotten used to the revenue stream produced by full album sales. iTunes threw a spanner into that set of gears, and they are still in denial over it. In a very real sense, the DRM fight is a symptom of the larger problem - the unwillingness to accept the change in business conditions. The RIAA wants to keep making saddles while we no longer need them.
This is good news:
SCI FI Channel has increased its episode order for the fourth season of Battlestar Galactica to 22 from the original 13, including a special two-hour extended episode that will air during the fourth quarter of this year and be released on DVD by Universal Studios Home Entertainment thereafter.
I hope the hole left by Starbuck's death is filled though; the show seems to be meandering at the moment.
If you're interested in getting involved with Google's Summer of Code using Smalltalk, then you might want to talk to Todd Blanchard - he's a mentor for the Smalltalk projects.
Scoble has an interesting post up on ad relevance and paid results - and it looks like Google is going with a "less is more" approach on the ad front. The part that grabbed my eye is how much more relevant the paid results were on Google (and I've noticed this in my searches as well - when I don't know a company's website URL, the Google search usually gives it to me as the first result in both the main and paid results).
All of which tells me that Microsoft and Yahoo still have a lot of catching up to do in this space.
Michael and I have been working on the Twitter client, and getting various fixes and enhancements in. We added support for Proxy servers today, and (at least on Windows), got international character display support. Here's how it looks right now:
It's a neat little project - we intend to make the message display more useful - that's one of the next tasks.
Technorati Tags: Twitter
Nick Carr has an eye for the obvious today:
In another sign of what the future holds for Web 2.0 in business, the Forrester survey found a clear preference among CIOs for buying a full suite of Web 2.0 tools from a large, established vendor. 74% of CIOs said they'd be more interested in investing in Web 2.0 if all the tools were offered as a suite, and 71% said they'd prefer the tools to be "offered by a major incumbent vendor like Microsoft or IBM [rather than] smaller specialist firms like Socialtext, NewsGator, MindTouch, and others." Web 2.0 startups hoping to make big inroads in the enterprise market will face some big challenges, particularly as the larger vendors release their own suites of tools or incorporate them into existing products. You can bypass the CIO on a small scale, but it's difficult to bypass the CIO when it comes time for a company to standardize on a particular product and vendor.
For established companies, I'd say "well, duh". They say that for the same reason that they keep buying WebSphere and Microsoft Office. The entry point for the smaller guys isn't with the big, established firms - it's with smaller outfits who are willing to take a chance on something that's either cheaper or offers higher productivity - or both.
Sounds like the folks behind "Galactica" are planning to have an actual ending to the series:
"Like many other serial dramas, such as 'Lost' or 'The Shield,' these series have a beginning, a middle and an end," says an insider at Universal, the studio that produces "Galactica."
Hmm - so that will fuel speculation - do they end it at the point where they find Earth? Do they end it with the Cylons wiping humanity out? There are any number of interesting endings, if they are willing to go out with a bang.
In today's Smalltalk Daily, we learn how to retrieve email from a POP3 server with Cincom Smalltalk.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Doc Searls points to this article, which explains in complete detail why newspapers - both dead tree and online - are busily dying. Like the recording and video industry, newspapers simply aren't in synch with the new business models, and are desperately trying to cling to their existing ones. It won't be a pretty thing to watch as the screams die off in the distance.
Technorati Tags: newspapers
David Buck is running an Intro to VisualWorks course in Ottawa, April 23-27. Interested? Give him a shout.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Michael is asking for name suggestions for our little project - in the meantime, I've been slogging forward on the application. Oh - if you want to follow my truly exciting stream of test messages, you can go here, to my Twitter stream. Here's how it looks now that I've laid the UI out a bit better:
Still not a thing of beaty, but at least I have scrollbars now :) I also got access to the friends list working:
That's about it for now - I'll see what Michael has made of it in the morning.
Technorati Tags: Twitter
I've just pushed another version of the Twitter bundle up to the Public Store - it's cleaned up quite a bit from the last version - but there's still plenty to do. If you're interested, load the latest and have a look.
Technorati Tags: Twitter
The Squeak folks have a booth at Smalltalk Solutions 2007 - Chris Cunnington reports:
I am pleased to announce that Squeak will have its own booth at the Smalltalk Solutions show. I have just signed the booth agreement, and faxed it back to the it360.ca show management.
I got the idea for a Squeak booth by attending the Toronto Linux Users Group pre-show meeting in February. I figured if they could get a free booth as a non-profit, then so ought we.
The more the merrier!
Today's Smalltalk Daily is short - we wrap up sending email with attachments and exception handling.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
We need a better name for the project, but we've got a (very basic) UI up for our little Twitter application. After I got the basic domain done yesterday, Michael added a UI and some basic network connectivity - we can now specify an update interval, and display the public Twitter stream:
The UI leaves a lot to be desired at present; the timestamps should be lined up, and you should be able to drill down into the user specifics for each item. It's a start, though, and you can load it yourself - grab the Twitter bundle from the Public Store. Volunteers welcome - and yes, it is a Widgetry UI :)
Technorati Tags: development
Lukas Renggli is giving a Seaside talk in Geneva, Switzerland on March 29: auditorium du Geneva Business Center, Petit-Lancy.
I may be skeptical about Twitter, but it does have a lot of buzz at the moment. So - I've created a small domain model that can create objects from the XML status file that Twitter generates. If you want to try it out, load Twitter from the Public Store, and then try this:
client := HttpClient new. contents := (client get: 'http://twitter.com/statuses/public_timeline.xml') contents. parser := XML.XMLParser new. parser validate: false. xml := parser parse: contents readStream ^Twitter.Constructor from: xml.
That's all it does right now - if you inspect the result, you'll get a collection of Status objects (each with a user). Michael and I intend to build a UI for it (the goal being a small notification application). If you're interested in helping out, go ahead and load that and have a look.
Late last week Steve Ballmer gave an speech at Stanford in which he stated that Google is a "one trick pony" - that trick being search, of course.
Here's the thing - if I use the same level of evaluation, Microsoft is a two trick pony: Windows and Office. Sure, MS does other things, and so does Google. If you look just at revenue though, MS relies on those two things pretty heavily. Whether they are safer bets over the long term than Google's ad revenue is something else entirely.
Technorati Tags: Windows
I added the static resources capability to the server quite awhile ago, when I migrated the Cincom Smalltalk site over to Silt. I hadn't really exposed that functionality beyond that one site though - and that changed today. If you look in the sidebar, you'll see a little "About Me" link - which I've linked to a small bio page. Any of the bloggers here can add that kind of "static" resource now, and edit it via the admin pages after logging in.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Charles points to the March 28th NY STUG meeting, with Panu Viljamaa:
In this presentation Panu will talk about Unit-Testing in Smalltalk, including a new simplified "Method-Tests" -API for doing so. He will demonstrate how unit-testing can be made more productive and totally integrated with the open IDE of Smalltalk. This presentation will be a precursor, and a dress-rehearsal for a more comprehensive presentation to be given at Smalltalk Solutions 2007, Toronto.
Sounds like fun - but I'll be in the UK then :)
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Neopolean and Scoble (in the comments to this post) are having an interesting little slagfest - and I have to say, I think Neopolean has the better argument. Scoble has gotten way, way too deep into the self referential "Web 2.0" Silicon Valley culture, and I think he's having trouble seeing the outside. In particular, he's not seeing the obvious problems with long form online video. I've been interested in a number of his interviews - and haven't listened to any. Why? Because it's way too much trouble to strip the audio myself and load the results on my iPod.
Here's another thing - as much crap as I give MS, I think they'll weather the storm that's about to arrive on the scene (look at the mortgage foreclosure news and the Web 2.0 bubble - something is going to give). The various "Web 2.0" companies with marginal business plans? Not so much.
Technorati Tags: PR
On today's Smalltalk Daily, we take a look at sending mail messages from within a Cincom Smalltalk application.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
In the midst of a long anti-Scoble ramble, Neopolean makes the same kind of point about online video that I've been making for a long while now:
Nobody consulted me - and nobody should have - but if they had, I would have said to do audio, or even just images with text. A typical news site, but with the Scoble brand. Whatever I may be feeling about him this morning, I'm not going to deny that his name is worth something in this industry.
My guess is that Scoble and co wanted to "get in" on the growing popularity of niche video news sites. The difference is that, when you take a look at what some of the other more successful sites are doing, Scoble's videos are too long (in terms of the bandwidth it takes to serve them up). If you don't have gobs of dough in the bank, then every minute is important. By not editing out the boring bits, the videos are going up as-is, gigantic and all.
Very few people are going to sit at their PC's and watch a 45 minute video - when you see successes in online video, you see short - Ze Frank, RocketBoom - stuff that doesn't take long to consume. Long video just takes up too much time and attention to deal with - and if your answer is "just listen, don't watch", then my answer is "push it out as an audio mp3". Audio is a lot easier to consume than video, and can be consumed when it's too hard (or impossible) to read (a car, out jogging, etc).
Insisting on a video format just because you can is a nice way to increase your bandwidth costs and reduce the potential size of your audience. How that works as a business plan, I'm not sure.
The Grokster case is coming back to haunt us all with the Viacom suit against YouTube. In Grokster, the court held that "inducement" to violate copyright landed you in hot water - which cracked the door open wide enough for Viacom to bring suit - even though YouTube seems to fall into the Safe Harbor provisions of the DMCA. Lessig explains:
The Grokster case thus sent a clear message to lawyers everywhere: You get two bites at the copyright policy-making apple, one in Congress and one in the courts. But in Congress, you need hundreds of votes. In the courts, you need just five.
Viacom has now accepted this invitation from the Supreme Court. The core of its case centers on the “safe harbor” provision of the 1998 Digital Millennium Copyright Act. The provision, a compromise among a wide range of interests, was intended to protect copyright owners while making it possible for Internet businesses to avoid crippling copyright liability. As applied to YouTube, the provision immunizes the company from liability for material posted by its users, so long as it takes steps to remove infringing material soon after it is notified by the copyright owner.
While this mess is being litigated, no one can be sure what is and isn't allowable under safe harbor. I'm afraid that the chaos Lessig predicts (read the rest of his column) is going to come about.
Technorati Tags: law
Martin Fowler explains how things are different when server volume reaches epic scale:
A couple of years ago I was talking to a couple of friends of mine who were doing some work at eBay. It's always interesting to hear about the techniques people use on high volume sites, but perhaps one of the most interesting tidbits was that eBay does not use database transactions.
It's a fascinating look at how common conventions have to be re-examined when traffic reaches certain extremely high levels.
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I've just finished Ernst Jünger's "Storm of Steel" - he was a highly decorated German veteran of the first world war. Most of the books I've read about that (or any other) war have been strategic or tactical overviews; this is a personal look at how an average soldier's days were spent at the front. It's very explicit in terms of the horror - the author describes the effects of machine guns and high explosives in complete detail. |
The book is neither anti-war nor pro-war; it's more matter of fact than that. None of us who live today can really imagine what life was like for the trench soldiers of that war, but this book gets you as close to understanding as is possible. If casual discussion of carnage bothers you, don't read this book - but I came away from it with a better idea of what my grandfather went through with the AEF.
I just went through the static resources this server uses, and made sure that all of them are being served by Apache rather than the Smalltalk server. The Smalltalk server now handles only the dynamic loads; all the static resources (images, mostly) are handled by Apache. This falls under "best tool for the job", and is something I probably should have done a long time ago :)
Carl Gundel demonstrates how easy it is to create a web application using Run-Basic - a server-side implementation of LibertyBasic. Head over here for the screencast. Run-Basic is powered by Cincom Smalltalk.
Technorati Tags: Basic
 |
I'll be speaking at SPA 2007 - on Sunday, March 25th I'll be giving a six hour "Intro to Smalltalk" tutorial. We'll be using VW non-commercial (version 7.4.1), and doing a pretty immersive piece of learning. After that, I can relax and just attend the show - it's always been a fun conference in the past, so I'm looking forward to it. |
Yesterday, there was a complaint in the VWNC mailing list about the sudden surges in items from the public store feed - whenever someone pushes a project out, there's often a number of versions of the same package/bundle that hit the feed all at once. Holger Kleinsorgen, the original author, fixed that problem with an update - now, multiple new versions of the same item will be listed in one RSS item. That should cut down on the artificial flood.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Phishing has taken the next step up (or down, depending on how you want to look at it) the food chain: fake blogs as a source for malware:
Fortinet gives examples of the sites, including one for a supposed fan of the Honda CR450 motor car, which attempts to infect visitors with the Wonka Trojan. In another, the fake blog redirects visitors to a store front purporting to be Pharmacy Express, a phishing site that has turned up in many spam emails distributed by the Stration worm.
"These are not legitimate blogs that were compromised. They appear to be deliberately set up to promote phishing, which is against our terms of service. We are investigating, and blogs found to include malicious code or promote phishing will be deleted," Google said in a statement to CNET.
Splogs as a source of spam links are nothing new, but this takes things to a new level - especially given the ease of creating search feeds that bring these things directly to IE, Firefox, Safari, or Opera.
Well, either downloads cratered last week, or there's a logging
problem -
BottomFeeder downloads look like an average of 16 per day, which
is about 10x less than normal. The sorry details:
It helps when you actually download all the correct log files, instead of just the data for a few hours :) As it happens, BottomFeeder averaged 217 downloads per day. Whew :)
| Platform | BottomFeeder Downloads |
| Windows | 474 |
| Update | 195 |
| Linux x86 | 126 |
| CE ARM | 120 |
| Mac X | 115 |
| Mac 8/9 | 85 |
| Solaris | 70 |
| Linux PPC | 63 |
| HPUX | 59 |
| Sources | 52 |
| Linux Sparc | 50 |
| AIX | 37 |
| Windows98/ME | 32 |
| SGI | 26 |
| ADUX | 15 |
| CE x86 | 3 |
On top of that is the 25-26 downloads a day I'm getting from the CNet based downloads. Anyway, let's see about the rest of the data, starting with the HTML accesses:
| Tool | Percentage of Accesses |
| Mozilla | 47.5% |
| Internet Explorer | 40.9% |
| MSN Bot | 6.4% |
| Other | 1.9% |
| Opera | 2% |
| Noxtrum bot | 1.3% |
Traffic for the HTML pages looks normal, except that Planet Smalltalk seems to have stopped being a bad bot
| Tool | Percentage of Accesses |
| Internet Explorer | 21.9% |
| Mozilla | 19.6% |
| BottomFeeder | 15.2% |
| Other | 5.9% |
| BlogLines | 7.2% |
| Net News Wire | 5.7% |
| Google Feed Fetcher | 4.6% |
| Safari RSS | 4% |
| Vienna | 3.3% |
| NewsGator | 1.9% |
| Akregator | 1.6% |
| Python | 1.1% |
| News Fire | 1% |
| MSN Bot | 1% |
| RSS Bandit | 1% |
| SharpReader | 1% |
| Jakarta | 1% |
| JetBrains | 1% |
| Liferea | 1% |
| Opera | 1% |
Wow - I guess IE7 is having an impact - my subscription numbers rose last week, and IE rose with them.
As if to make sure we remember when the calendar changes over, winter took a (hopefully final) shot at us last night - these shots don't show a lot snow, but what's there is pretty solid ice. And, my driveway has a nice non-melting northern exposure :)
Bah
I recorded this week's episode during the week of March 5th, in Cincinnati. ObjectStudio 8 is about to enter open beta, with the upcoming release of Cincom Smalltalk - so it seemed like a good time to get Andreas Hiltner and Mark Grinnell in a room to talk about it. Joining me was Arden Thomas, our field application engineer.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk, objectstudio
Enclosures:
[http://www.cincomsmalltalk.com/audio/2007/industry_misinterpretations-03-17-07.mp3 ( Size: 6150816 )]
Wow - you have to actually see this to believe it:
Are you saying that this linux can run on a computer without windows underneath it, at all ? As in, without a boot disk, without any drivers, and without any services ?
That sounds preposterous to me.
If it were true (and I doubt it), then companies would be selling computers without a windows. This clearly is not happening, so there must be some error in your calculations. I hope you realise that windows is more than just Office ? Its a whole system that runs the computer from start to finish, and that is a very difficult thing to acheive. A lot of people dont realise this.
Believe it or not, there's more. Hat tip Doc Searls.
Technorati Tags: windows
Here's a question you haven't heard me ask before: What don't you need in Cincom Smalltalk? I'm not talking about things we haven't built that you think we shouldn't; I mean things we currently have in the product that you think we should drop. Any thoughts on that?
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Squeak is getting some good visibility over on the Google Summer of Code page.
Technorati Tags: squeak
Looks like I spoke too soon about winter leaving - two days ago I was puttering in the garden in shorts, and yesterday I was out jogging in mid-70 degree warmth. Today?
I live in Columbia, which is smack in the middle of the ice zone. Bah.
I think Bill Gates would have done better to simply laugh off the Mac/PC ad question - instead, he got all snippy. Looks to me like Gates' previously solid marketing/PR skills are fading...
On today's Smalltalk Daily, we look at toggling the state of a menu item (i.e., adding a check to indicate a binary state). Staying with this week's example, we keep the menu state in synch with the "zoom" state of our master/detail form.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
Twitter is the current "big thing" amongst the tech cogniscenti - "everyone" has an account and is busily telling everyone what they're doing right now. Conspicuously missing from all this: an actual business plan to generates money:
Twitter was launched a year ago by Obvious Corp., a San Francisco start-up formerly known as Odeo Inc. that also runs a podcasting service. Twitter now hosts more than 30,000 posts a day and has more than 50,000 users, according to Twitter founder Jack Dorsey. The service is appealing because of its simplicity, said the 30-year old, who formerly worked as a software engineer at a courier-dispatch service. "You find a lot of connection in just the simplest, most mundane updates from your friends," he said. Twitter doesn't charge users for the service, though he said it may charge for additional features in the future.
You have to love that last bit - it's an admission that right now they are simply spending money in the hopes that revenue will arrive someday, from somewhere. I doubt that advertising will be the answer; if you get updates on your phone, you'll never see them. Mind you, someone is making money on this - cell phone companies:
After joining Dodgeball [a similar service], Minneapolis Web developer Jenni Ripley, 33, upgraded her text-messaging plan with her wireless carrier when she exceeded her previous monthly quota of 1,000 messages.
I used to ask where the revenue model for YouTube was (turns out it was "get bought") - and I may yet be right - if Viacom wins their suit, you can expect the floodgates of litigation to open. That (a lawsuit) won't happen to Twitter, but I expect that the "search for revenue" will continue. On the other hand, if that text message usage is common, maybe Verizon or AT&T will pick them up.
Meanwhile, Obvious Corp's other service, Odeo, continues to be broken - which is apparently ok, since the entire company is busy sending Twitter messages to itself all day.
The Squeak community is part of the "Summer of Code" thing that Google runs. If you're interested, go give them a hand.
Sam Shuster has posted an update on Pollock - which we are now calling "Widgetry".
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
I agree with part of what Doc says about the net neutrality debate:
First, the Net is a vast set of connections on which countless services can be deployed. Telephony and television are just two. Because telephone and cable companies offer Internet connections as a secondary "service" on top of their primary businesses, we tend to think of the Net in the same terms. This is a mistake. The Internet will in the long run become a base-level utility, and we will come to regard telephony and television as two among many categories of data supported by that utility.
That much is probably true - people are starting to view a net connection the same way they view telephones: an essential service. However, there's a problem with the next bit:
Second, the end-to-end nature of the Net puts everybody on it in a position to both produce and consume. It is not just about consumption. It is at least as much about production. In the U.S., telephone and cable companies have deployed Net services in asymmetrical and crippled forms from the beginning. While this crippling is easily rationalized (typical usage is asymmetrical, and turning off outbound mail and web service ports discourages spamming), it also serves to discourage countless small and home businesses. Worse, "business-grade service" (symmetrical with no port blockages) is so expensive in most cases that it is essentially prohibited.
Potentially, anyone can be a producer. In practice, very, very few people actually are. Look at the stats on monster sites like Digg - while anyone can vote a story up, there's a fairly small population of regular users who are, for all intents and purposes, editors. The same dynamic holds with every forum, electronic or otherwise. In any community, the number of people involved drops dramatically as you go from "people who pay some level of attention to it" to "active participants".
While it's true that we don't have a lot of competition in the ISP space, we also don't have a lot of demand for upstream connectivity. Most people just download stuff, and that dynamic simply isn't going to change. The blogosphere has given megaphones to a lot of people who didn't have them before, but those people are the ones who would have found some way to be involved anyway. If we had actual demand for symmetric services, I do think you would see it. We simply don't, and I don't really expect that to change much.
Technorati Tags: news, net neutrality
You can now register online for the Smalltalk Solutions 2007 conference. Just head on over here.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk, registration
On today's Smalltalk Daily, we learn how to dynamically "zoom" a part of a UI. Carrying on from the example we've used this week, we take the detail form in PersonListUI, and zoom it over the listbox that controls the detail display.
Technorati Tags: smalltalk
You don't want to create any crumbs when you eat the $1000 pizza.
Technorati Tags: news
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