Where's that cluestick again?
I see that Information Week is quoting Gartner on what's coming up in software development:
Automation and visualization are a necessity for mainstream companies that aren't necessarily sophisticated users of IT, says Michael Blechar, research director in the app-development group at market researcher Gartner. "Although they're able to do simple kinds of Java and .Net things well, when it comes to the most complex stuff, they're failing miserably," he says. "Those companies are finding that the only way they can use less-sophisticated developers to build more-sophisticated Java and .Net applications is through the use of visualization and code automation."
I wonder if they recall this table from Capers Jones - scroll down a bit, and note that Java is at level 6. Now scroll up - see where C++ is? All that forward motion to get nowhere. Since C# is Java in MS clothing, we can slot that at 6 as well. Now scroll down to Smalltalk, and ponder the number you see there. Now go back to the Gartner quote, and recall their brilliant advice about "putting Smalltalk into maintenance mode".
After you digest all of that, have a look at Frank Hayes' article - the top part where he lists project failure results:
Department of Corrections: Last month in this space, I reported on The Standish Group's most recent Chaos survey. I said that only 28% of IT projects succeed, 18% are canceled, and 51% are "challenged" -- seriously late, over budget and lacking expected features. Some readers wrote in to point out that the numbers don't add up: 28% plus 18% plus 51% makes only 97%.
They're right. I botched the numbers. That 51% comes from 2003. This year, 54% of U.S. IT projects fell into the challenged category.
Yeah, the numbers were wrong. But at least they weren't ridiculous -- or worse.
Yes, a lot of that is management failure - of which a not insignificant part is "let's rewrite all of our (working) software in (insert current fad language here)". A ton of that was aided and abetted by those bright folks over here.

Comments
Haven't we seen something like this before?
[Mel Riffe] December 10, 2004 13:52:18.061
Admittedly having spent the last 4 years doing Java, I might not be as sharp as I once was, but wasn't there a time when all applications looked like VB. Automation and visualation, in my opinion, led to a lot of cookie-cutter-type applications. I guess no one wants to use their noodle solving problems; drawing pictures and connecting the dots can be fun - remember PARTS?
And what is a sophisticated user of IT? Are they talking about producers of IT products or the consumers? Most people know that IT consumers are not always computer literate. I have to assume they're talking about the producers of IT products. And why do they need to be sophisticated? Could it be the environments they have to work in are overly complex and cumbersome (think J2EE)? Just thinking out loud...
Plus I just want to say thanks for the re-link to the Capers Jones page. I now have documented proof my career went south after leaving Smalltalk; I was so foolish.
Mel Riffe
http://melriffe.blogspot.com